Friday, October 31, 2014

Could Non-Citizens Determine the Outcome of the Midterm Elections?

Here's the question of the day: Could Non-Citizens Determine the Outcome of the Midterm Elections?

Some elections, especially for Senate are so close, the unfortunate answer is "yes" as the following video insight from Insight from the Libre Institute explains.



Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Nikkei Futures Up Limit, Yen Collapses, Dollar Up, Gold Down as BoJ Pledges "Unwavering Determination" to Get 2% Inflation

"Whatever it Takes" Japanese Style

It's a world truly gone mad.

In a surprise move today, the Bank of Japan announced further quantitative easing, dominated by long-term Japanese government bonds. The BoJ also announced it  and would triple annual purchases of exchange traded funds and property investment trusts.

BoJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda defied objections from four fellow board members, arguing that a tax-hit economy and a lower oil price have led to “a critical moment” in the country’s bid to escape from deflation.

The Financial Times quotes Kuroda as follows: The extra action “shows our unwavering determination to end deflation. There was a risk that despite having made steady progress, we could face a delay in eradicating the public’s deflation mindset. This is a pretty drastic step, so I think there will be a significant effect [on the economy].”

Stunning Market Reaction

  • Nikkei futures up lock limit (1160 points)
  • S&P 500 up 1.0% (new all-time high)
  • Yen plunges 2.5%
  • Dollar rises 0.9%
  • Gold sinks 2.75%
  • Oil down 1.1%

Nikkei Futures



S&P 500 Futures



Yen Futures



US Dollar Futures



Gold Futures



Oil Futures



One of my top two trade ideas worked today: Long the Nikkei hedged with a short-yen position. Gold certainly didn't. I still have faith central bank madness will eventually light a fire on my second key idea.

Buyer of Only Resort

Not only is Japan's population in decline, the remaining population is aging. Somehow, Japan believes its economy ought to grow anyway. In addition, Japan wants 2% inflation even though that is the last thing Japanese savers need.

Given that Japanese pension funds are now net sellers of Japanese government bonds, and given Japan's pledge to destroy the Yen to fight deflation, the buyer of only resort of Japan's government bonds is the Bank of Japan.

Currency Crisis Awaits

Japan's government debt is over 250% of GDP. Japan's debt is so high that an interest rate of somewhere between 2 and 3 percent will consume 100% of tax revenue.

Amusingly, the central bank wants 2% inflation and 0% bond rates. How's that going to work?

The answer is "It's not".

Today's message is clearly "get the hell out of the yen".

Somewhere down the line, a global currency crisis awaits. I am willing to hold gold indefinitely until that happens.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Thursday, October 30, 2014

Looking for a Good Education at a Low Price, Perhaps Free? Head to Europe

On June 7, 2014 I wrote Looking to Drastically Reduce College Costs? Study Abroad!

Yesterday, a writer for the Washington Post expressed the same opinion.

Please consider 7 countries where Americans can study at universities, in English, for free (or almost free).
Since 1985, U.S. college costs have surged by about 500 percent, and tuition fees keep rising. In Germany, they've done the opposite.

The country's universities have been tuition-free since the beginning of October, when Lower Saxony became the last state to scrap the fees. Tuition rates were always low in Germany, but now the German government fully funds the education of its citizens -- and even of foreigners.

What might interest potential university students in the United States is that Germany offers some programs in English -- and it's not the only country. Let's take a look at the surprising -- and very cheap -- alternatives to pricey American college degrees.

Germany

Americans can earn a German undergraduate or graduate degree without speaking a word of German and without having to pay a single dollar of tuition fees: About 900 undergraduate or graduate degrees are offered exclusively in English, with courses ranging from engineering to social sciences.

Finland

This northern European country charges no tuition fees, and it offers a large number of university programs in English. However, the Finnish government amiably reminds interested foreigners that they "are expected to independently cover all everyday living expenses." In other words: Finland will finance your education, but not your afternoon coffee break.

France

There are at least 76 English-language undergraduate programs in France, but many are offered by private universities and are expensive. Many more graduate-level courses, however, are designed for English-speaking students, and one out of every three French doctoral degrees is awarded to a foreign student. "It is no longer needed to be fluent in French to study in France," according to the government agency Campus France.

Sweden

This Scandinavian country is among the world's wealthiest, and its beautiful landscape beckons. It also offers some of the world's most cost-efficient college degrees. More than 300 listed programs in 35 universities are taught in English. However, only Ph.D programs are tuition-free.

Norway

Norwegian universities do not charge tuition fees for international students. The Norwegian higher education system is similar to the one in the United States: Class sizes are small and professors are easily approachable. Many Norwegian universities offer programs taught in English.

Slovenia

About 150 English programs are available, and foreign nationals only pay an insignificant registration fee when they enroll.

Brazil

Some Brazilian courses are taught in English, and state universities charge only minor registration fees. Times Higher Education ranks two Brazilian universities among the world's top 400: the University of Sao Paulo and the State University of Campinas. However, Brazil might be better suited for exchange students seeking a cultural experience rather than a degree.
That excellent information (more in the above link) is from Washington Post foreign affairs writer Rick Noack.

I believe it's near-crazy to pay $30,000 (or far more) in the US for what can be had in Europe for free.

Eventually costs will crash in the US for the simple reason, they must. Online education ensures that outcome.

For details, please see Future of Education is At Hand: Online, Accredited, Affordable, Useful

Here's my more recent followup post: Teaching Revolution: Online, Accredited, Free; Start Learning Now!

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Earnings Cheating Season: Is Your Favorite Company Cooking the Books?

In his latest Global Strategy Report, Albert Edwards at Societe Generale discusses "earnings season" which he calls "cheating season".
We have always found that swings in analyst earnings expectations mirror the economic cycle quite well, but because of the weekly frequency, swings in analyst earnings optimism often act as a timely leading indicator for the economic cycle. If that is still the case, the recent data for the US should be worrying. Despite the soothing Q3 headline earnings reports as US companies ‘game’ the system, all is not well once you look into the ‘MUC’ (Manipulated Underperforms Conservative).

Remember the so-called Fed model? We were told that the extraordinarily high PEs were justified by low bond yields. The key plank of the Ice Age theory was that this positive correlation would break down and that equities would de-rate in absolute and relative terms compared to government bonds thereby inverting the close positive correlation between bond and equity yields.

What this also means is that in an Ice Age world, the equity cycle will more closely correlate with economic and profits cycles. Most correlation analysis finds virtually no post-war relationship between economic growth and the stock market.

But, this does not hold true during the Ice Age. Indeed, we knew from Japan that the equity market would start to track the economic and earnings cycle closely.

In the Ice Age, equity investors need to pay close attention to economic and earnings cycles and not be comforted by lower bond yields. If that is the case equity investors should be getting nervous NOW as earnings optimism starts to fall away sharply.

Earnings Upgrades vs. Downgrades as Percentage of Changes



We have long believed that the US reporting season should in fact be called the US cheating season as companies game the market to ramp earnings down ahead of company announcements only to beat analysts estimates by 1¢ on the day!

Apparently companies believe the feel-good news headlines of a earnings beat will offset the negative impact of downward guidance ahead of the report. In fact the evidence suggests otherwise: my colleague Andrew Lapthorne has shown that those companies that engage in earnings manipulation underperform those that do not. He developed a very useful MUC Score, Manipulated Underperforms Conservative.

(An update of the MUC is being delayed while Andrew works on an update of a more comprehensive earnings quality score, formally called the cheating, or C-score. Developed by my former colleague James Montier, Andrew changed the name as companies got mighty shirty when they appeared on this list!)

I rely on Andrew for this timely weekly data which he highlights every Monday in the Global Equity Market Arithmetic.

This week, he notes that “despite being in the US reporting season, which typically delivers manufactured surprises and therefore an improvement in US earnings momentum, we have been surprised by the complete lack of a bounce in upgrades versus downgrades. Not only has there been zero bounce, but next year's expectations continue to be downgraded with 65% of all estimate changes to 2015 currently coming through as downgrades. Meanwhile European earnings momentum has also collapsed. Hardly an inspiring environment for pushing equities further upwards.”

US Earnings Momentum



European Earnings Momentum




We need to be watching this weaker than expected earnings optimism data closely. Certainly the front page chart shows the apex of weakness globally is in the US and it is entirely plausible that the deflationary winds blowing around the world are washing up on US shores with the situation worsened still by the stronger dollar. A sharp decline in EPS optimism since 2009 has been consistent with previous hiatuses in financial markets. In other words, there may be more to the recent flash-crash than just one weak retail sales datum a deeper malaise surrounding weak profits may be driving events.
Is Your Favorite Company Cooking the Books?

In addition to his own excellent analysis, Albert linked to Montier's C-Score: Are your favourite stocks cooking the books?.

To help decide, Montier came up with six questions. The answer is binary: yes or no.

  1. Is there a growing divergence between net income and operating cash-flow? Management has less flexibility to alter cash flow, whereas earnings can be stuffed for all sorts of "funnies".
  2. Are Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) increasing? If so (i.e. accounts receivable are growing faster than sales), this may be a sign of channel stuffing.
  3. Are days sales of inventory (DSI) increasing? If so, this may suggest slowing sales, not a good sign.
  4. Are other current assets increasing vs. revenues? As some CFOs know that DSO and/or DSI are usually closely watched, they may use this catch-all line item to help hide things they don't want investors to focus upon.
  5. Are there declines in depreciation relative to gross property plant and equipment? This guards against firms altering their estimate of useful asset life to beat earnings targets.
  6. Is total asset growth high? Some firms are serial acquirers and use their acquisitions to distort their earnings. While this may be justified in some circumstance, generally it has been shown that high asset growth firms underperform.

Does It Work?
As a shorting tool, Montier suggests using the C-Score in combination with some measure of over-valuation. This was on the basis that high-flying and generally more expensive stocks that are tempted to alter their earnings in order to maintain their high growth status. He used a threshold price to sales ratio of 2 and found that this drove the absolute return down to -4% in both the US and Europe!
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Ebola "Turning Point" and Perspective

Last Week the Huffington Post reported Ebola.com Sells For More Than $200,000 -- Including 19,000 Shares Of Cannabis Sativa Stock.
Two Las Vegas entrepreneurs attempting to sell the rights to Ebola.com succeeded in selling to the highest bidder -- literally.

Chris Hood and Jon Schultz paid $13,500 for the rights to Ebola.com back in 2008 and have just sold it to a company called Weed Growth Fund.

The terms of sale call for Hood and Schultz to get $50,000 in cash and 19,192 shares of Cannabis Sativa, Inc., a company run by former New Mexico governor Gary Johnson that hopes to market legal cannabis products throughout the world.

The stock is currently trading under the CBDS ticker symbol at $8.55 share, which means the value of the shares sold to Hood and Schultz is $164,091.
Add it up and they received $214,091. That's quite a profit, but the sellers made even more on LasVegasRealEstate.com and PayDayLoans.Com.

There is certainly a lot of attention on the disease. But what are the real risks?

The following chart of number of ebola cases and the country of origin from The Guardian will add a much needed perspective.

Ebola Cases



Turning Point

Admittedly the disease is very scary. About 70% of the people who contract the disease die from it. But according to  Dr Jeremy Farrar of Wellcome Trust and as reported by The Guardian in Ebola ‘May Have Reached Turning Point’
The Ebola epidemic in west Africa may have reached a turning point, according to the director of the Wellcome Trust, which is funding an unprecedented series of fast-tracked trials of vaccines and drugs against the disease.

Writing in the Guardian, Dr Jeremy Farrar says that although there are several bleak months ahead, “it is finally becoming possible to see some light. In the past 10 days, the international community has belatedly begun to take the actions necessary to start turning Ebola’s tide.

“The progress made is preliminary and uncertain; even if ultimately successful it will not reduce mortality or stop transmission for some time. We are not close to seeing the beginning of the end of the epidemic but [several] developments offer hope that we may have reached the end of the beginning.”

Farrar’s comments come as the World Health Organisation confirmed that the number of Ebola cases in Liberia has started to decline, with fewer burials and some empty hospital beds. But the WHO warned against any assumption that the outbreak there was ending.

“I’m terrified that the information will be misinterpreted,” said Dr Bruce Aylward, assistant director-general in charge of the Ebola operational response. “This is like saying your pet tiger is under control. This is a very, very dangerous disease. Any transmission change could result in many, many more deaths.”

“The danger is that instead of a trend that takes us down to zero, we end up with an oscillating pattern,” he said. Getting to zero will involve grindingly hard work, identifying every Ebola case and tracing all the contacts. Without that effort, Ebola will remain at a lower but still dangerous level.
Balanced Risk Assessment 

Dr Jeremy Farrar does a good job of expressing cautious optimism,  yet mentioning the risks without the customary fearmongering and hype we have seen in other articles.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Meet "OSHbot" Lowes New Store Helper; Goodbye Retail Associates, Hello Robots

Goodbye Retail Associates, Hello Robots

The future of shopping has arrived, and it's not human.

Not only do robots cost less than humans, they don't complain, they speak multiple languages, and most importantly, by scanning aisles they know where every item is in the store and can take you straight to it.

Meet "OSHbot"



OSHbot is the newest member of the "Fellow Robots" family, and developed in partnership with Lowes Innovation Labs.
The future of shopping has arrived

Retail Robotics is an exciting and fast growing new market and Fellow Robots is at the forefront. Advances in sensors, wireless networking, voice recognition and design prototyping are enabling us to build the smart retail robots that can autonomously navigate through stores, help communicate with customers to understand what they need and locate it quickly.

OSHbot incorporates the latest of these advanced technologies. For example, a customer may bring in a spare part and scan the object using OSHbot’s 3D sensing camera. After scanning and identifying the object, OSHbot will provide product information to the customer and guide them to its location on store shelves.
OSHbot Specs

  • Front Screen: 19.5 inches
  • Back Screen: 29 inches
  • Height: 5 ft
  • Weight: 85 pounds

OSHbot Technologies

  • Voice recognition
  • Advanced sensors
  • Autonomous navigation
  • Scanning
  • Obstacle avoidance

Making Science Fiction a Reality

The robot will come up to you and say in a pleasant tone "Hello I am OSHBot, your store robot helper. What can I help you with."

Show OSHbot a screw, and OSHbot will scan the item and take you to the exact match, or tell you if it's out of stock. Not even the most knowledgeable human clerk can do that.

OSHbot Articles

The Wall Street Journal reports Newest Workers for Lowe’s: Robots

The LA Times says Robot sales clerk? 'OSHbot' to debut in San Jose

OSHbot Video

The following video explains everything you need to know. It's well worth a play.



OSHbot Experience

Would you rather deal with an associate who may be unfriendly and typically does not know where things are, or OSHbot?

I would take OSHbot 7 days a week.

I suspect so would most. And even if you wouldn't, it's guaranteed to happen anyway.

Robots do not complain, they show up on time, they want to help, they don't ask for overtime, and they do not need medical insurance, Social Security, or pensions.

All of the greeters and helpers at WalMart, Lowes, Home Depot, Target, and retailers in general will give way to "Fellow Robots". And that will happen sooner than anyone realizes.

Deflationary Forces

OSHbot, competition, and technology in general are inherently price-deflationary.

With that thought, I suggest that the Fed, Central Banks, and Governments are on a failed mission. Sure, they can raise the minimum wage and engage in inflationary policies, but they cannot halt the march of technology and create jobs at the same time.

Every hike in minimum wages or healthcare subsidies is an extra added incentive for corporations to use hardware and software robots.

Inept Central Bank Policies

Asset bubbles of increasing magnitude over time coupled with rising income inequality is a direct consequence of inept central bank deflation-fighting exercises.

For further discussion please consider Challenge to Keynesians "Prove Rising Prices Provide an Overall Economic Benefit".

Inquiring minds may also wish to consider James Grant Conference Video: Inflation Expectations, Growth, Policy Problems; Europe Has Become Japan.

The next asset bust, as well as the Fed's response to it, are likely to be spectacular.

Addendum

A few interesting comments came within minutes. Here are a couple of them.

Gordon writes "This is great for the mom and pops of the world but ask the robot about the hammer and what actually works instead of just trying to sell someone a hammer and it cannot tell you."

Jon responds: "Good catch. I can't tell you how many times I've gone to Lowe's or Home Depot with a DYI project and the guy walked me around and told me how to do the same thing at half the cost that I budgeted. All at the expense to the company's margins of course. But those dudes are the best."

My reply: Robots will never replace everyone, just a huge portion of such workers. Moreover, and over time, these robots will get smarter and smarter, complete with how-to videos.  

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

No Plans for Normalization: Fed Ends QE, Will Hold Rates Low for "Considerable Time", Will Reinvest Proceeds

Inquiring minds may wish to slog through today's FOMC Press Release on Monetary Policy but it's really not worth the time it takes to read it.

Here are a few details, generally expected
  • The Committee judges that there has been a substantial improvement in the outlook for the labor market since the inception of its current asset purchase program.
  • The Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate.
  • The Committee anticipates, based on its current assessment, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time following the end of its asset purchase program this month, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored.
  • If incoming information indicates faster progress toward the Committee's employment and inflation objectives than the Committee now expects, then increases in the target range for the federal funds rate are likely to occur sooner than currently anticipated. Conversely, if progress proves slower than expected, then increases in the target range are likely to occur later than currently anticipated.
  • The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.

Reinvesting Principal Payments

The Fed also released a Statement Regarding Purchases of Treasury Securities and Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities.
NEW YORK — On October 29, 2014, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) directed the Open Market Trading Desk (the Desk) at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to conclude the current asset purchase program by the end of October . The FOMC also directed the Desk to maintain the existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of agency debt and agency MBS in agency MBS and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. This policy, by keeping the Committee’s holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.

Reinvestments in agency MBS will continue to be concentrated in newly-issued agency MBS in the To-Be-Announced (TBA) market. The Desk will adjust the number of individual agency MBS operations per month as needed for operational efficiency. The distribution of agency MBS purchases could change if market conditions warrant.
10-Year Treasury Yield

Curve Watchers Anonymous points out the yield on 10-year treasuries barely budged today as shown in this chart of $TNX.



The 10-year treasury yield is up slightly today to 2.32% a rise of about 4 basis points. Yield is down about 20 basis points since the end of September..

No Plans For Normalization

In spite of a bit of rah-rah about jobs, the Fed practically committed to holding rates low indefinitely.

Here is the key statement: "The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run. "

In addition, the Fed will continue to reinvest proceeds from treasuries and agencies in a manner "to be announced".

Hikes? Forget about them. They are not coming.

Correction

I inadvertently posted a chart of  TLT (a treasury fund) instead of $TNX, the treasury yield. Text above modified accordingly.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

NASA Rocket With Russian-Made Engine Explodes On Takeoff; Ironies Abound

Sanctions or not, NASA uses Russian-made engines to propel rockets.

Yesterday, just seconds after takeoff, a NASA Antares rocket with a Russian-made engine exploded on takeoff. The mission was to carry supplies to the orbiting space station.

Today, the Guardian reports that Russian rocket manufacturer insists it is not to blame for Antares crash.
The Russian maker of the engine used in the unmanned US supply rocket that exploded after liftoff in Virginia denied on Wednesday that its product was at fault for the catastrophe.

The launch phase of the Orbital Sciences Corporation’s Antares rocket relied on two AJ-26 engines that were originally produced in the 1970s for a failed Soviet moon program and later modernised for US space flights. Speculation quickly centered on the Soviet-based engines, which have failed in tests, when the rocket exploded in a giant fireball after takeoff on Tuesday night.

But the Kuznetsov company in the Russian city of Samara suggested the blame lay not with its NK-33 engines, which formed the basis for the AJ-26 engines, but rather with their later modification in the United States, Russian news agency Itar-Tass reported.

Investigators from Nasa were scouring the site of the failed launch in Virginia by helicopter on Wednesday as they attempted to assess the extent of damage to the Wallops Flight Facility, which is owned by the agency. Engineers working for Orbital Science were trying to work out what caused the failure of the company’s $200m rocket, which forced the cargo mission resupplying the International Space Station to be aborted seconds after launch.

The launch was the first time the Antares rocket had been launched at night from Wallops, and the fireball caused by its explosion could be seen from miles around.

The accident is likely to intensify scrutiny over Nasa’s deal to subcontract resupply missions to private space operators following the end of its shuttle programme.

Orbital is under particular pressure to explain whether its use of ageing Russian rocket engines to power the first stage of the Antares rocket was a factor.

Kuznetsov argued that its NK-33 engines had undergone significant modernisation in the United States, including the addition of new components to direct the rocket’s thrust vector. “The development and certification of all new systems were done by the American side without Kuznetsov specialists. In essence, the AJ-26 engine is undergoing flight tests,” it said.

The NK-33 engines were first developed for the Soviet Union’s N-1 moon rocket, but many of them wound up in storage when that program was cancelled after several launch failures. The US company Aerojet Rocketdyne reportedly bought about 40 of the Soviet engines in the 1990s and began modifying them for use in US rockets. The resulting AJ-26 engine has suffered some failures during tests: one caught fire in 2011, and another being tested in May before use in an Antares flight burned up.

Since the end of its space shuttle program in 2011, the United States has had to rely on Russian engines and entire rocket systems to deliver astronauts and supplies to the International Space Station.

But rising political tensions between the two countries have complicated their space cooperation. Following US sanctions against Russia over its role in the Ukraine crisis, Dmitry Rogozin, the deputy PM in charge of the space and defence industries, barred the export of Russian engines used to launch US military satellites into orbit and threatened to end US participation in the ISS beyond 2020.
Spectacular Video

Please click on the link to see a fascinating video of the explosion.

Ironies Abound


For all the hundreds of billions of dollars of wasteful military spending, the US does not even build its own rocket engines.

In spite of sanctions, the US relies on Russian-made engines, even for military satellites.

To top it off, sanctions bar exporting the engines elsewhere, even though we use them here! It's yet another perfect example of blatant US hypocrisy.  

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

MH17-Chief Investigator Investigates Possibility of Air-to-Air Missile, Seeks Cooperation From Russia

Spiegel Online interviews Fred Westerbeke, the Dutch lead investigator of flight MH17 crash.

Westerbeke states that a surface-to-air missile is the most likely scenario, but he also discusses "secret satellite images and a possible involvement of the Ukrainian military."

Here are edited interview snips from MH17-Chief Investigator Westerbeke: "Do the Russians Have More Evidence?"
Who shot flight MH17 from over Eastern Ukraine? The Dutch prosecutor Fred Westerbeke directs international investigation. He talks about secret satellite images and a possible involvement of the Ukrainian military.

Spiegel: Mr. Westerbeke, your job as chief prosecutor sounds hardly solvable: MH17 flight was shot down over a civil war zone, even now, three months later, your crime scene investigator for is not available. What gives you hope someday to be able to bring someone to court?

Westerbeke: The Netherlands does not determine in the case so alone. There is a very good cooperation with police and prosecutors, especially in Malaysia, Australia and the Ukraine. It is not easy. But we can do it.

Spiegel: In what period of time?

Westerbeke: Look at Lockerbie, the bombing of a Pan Am jumbo in December 1988 with 270 deaths. At that time, it took three years before you could name those responsible. We will certainly need the whole next year for our work, and perhaps even longer.

Spiegel: The Federal Intelligence Service BND assumes that pro-Russian separatists have shot down the machine with a surface to air missile. Recently some German parliamentarians corresponding satellite images were presented. Do you know these recordings?

Westerbeke: The problem is that there are very many different satellite images: Some of them can be found on the Internet, others come from foreign intelligence agencies.

Spiegel: High-resolution images, for example from US spy satellites could play a crucial role in the investigation of the case. Did you get those shots of the Americans?

Westerbeke: We are not sure if we already have everything, or whether there are more - material that may be even more specific. What we present is certainly not enough to draw any conclusions. We remain in contact with the United States to get satellite images.

Spiegel: The shooting down of flight MH17 is the biggest criminal case in the history of your country, it says. How many investigators are currently working?

Westerbeke: In the Netherlands alone there are ten prosecutors. Three of them coordinate the investigation, two work at the international level. Two more are responsible for the care of relatives. In addition, forensic expert number around 80. There are regular meetings with colleagues from Malaysia, Australia and the Ukraine to divide the work.

Spiegel: Because of fighting at the crash site, again and again, none of your investigators is on site. On which tracks you rely instead?

Westerbeke: There are metal fragments that were found in the bodies of the dead and in pieces of luggage. This could be shrapnel from a rocket-Buk, possibly also parts of the aircraft itself. We analyze this, so far there are no results. We also have some witnesses who were on the spot immediately after the crash. In the Internet we spot an immense amount of information. We also have various recordings of telephone conversations from the Ukrainian police. Some of it is already available online, but we did get richer material.

Spiegel: So far, is there any indisputable evidence?

Westerbeke: If you look in the newspapers, yes. But if we really want to bring the perpetrators to justice, we need more evidence than a recorded phone call from the internet or photos of the crash site. That's why we take several scenarios into consideration.

Spiegel: What are the scenarios?

Westerbeke: An accident, a terrorist attack, the shooting down by a surface to air missile or an attack by another aircraft. We have ruled out the first two.

Spiegel: Moscow circulated for some time, a claim that the passenger plane had been shot down by a Ukrainian fighter jet. Do you think it possible?

Westerbeke: Based on the available information, the launch is by a ground-to-air missile in my eyes is still the most likely scenario. But we do not close our eyes to the possibility that it might have been different.

Spiegel: The OVV report states that there were no military jets in the vicinity.

Westerbeke: Right. But that statement is based on information that was available at the time. The question is: Do the Russians have more evidence?

Spiegel: Your Prime Minister Mark Rutte has recently criticized Vladimir Putin because of his lack of support in the MH17 case. What is the role of Russia in the investigation?

Westerbeke: At the moment, not large, since it is not part of the investigation team. We are preparing a request for assistance, in which we ask Moscow for information that could be important. Among other things, we seek radar data with which the Russians wanted to prove the presence of a Ukrainian military jet near MH17 after the crash.

Spiegel: If you actually draw the participation of the Ukrainian Air Force on firing of flight MH17 into consideration - is it not absurd that Ukraine is involved in the investigation?

Westerbeke: Of course that's a problem. But we cannot determine without them. I want a way to make it clear: We have no evidence that Kiev has not been completely open with us. You give us all the information we want.
Notes: Translation from German is frequently difficult. I edited the Google translation to make it more readable. Also there is a bit more in the interview regarding rewards, bounties, the coming Winter, etc., but those clips were not very relevant so I truncated the translation a bit.

Investigative Problems

That seems like a pretty frank discussion of the issues, arguably the best we could have reasonably hoped for.  Clearly, many investigative problems remain.

The first problem, which Westerbeke admitted, is that if Ukraine is involved, it will seek to prevent that finding. Nonetheless, Westerbeke was polite in his response stating there is no evidence Kiev has not been open.

The second problem is that no countries really want cooperation from Russia. Fortunately, it seems the investigative team does.

A third problem is US satellite evidence. Where the hell is it? 

A fourth problem (unfortunately one that Spiegel never inquired about) regards flight deviations and tower to plane transmissions.

Without a doubt transmissions should be made available and flight pattern deviations over a war zone explained. If that has not been done (and I don't believe it has), then indeed there is strong evidence that Kiev has not been completely open.

The fifth problem is that even if the team concludes MH17 was downed by a surface-to-air attack, that alone does not prove who fired the missile.

Rush to Judgment

Finally, please note the "rush to judgment" by Ukraine, the US, Europe, and Western media in spite of glaring weaknesses in evidence gathered.

Nonetheless, it appears as if Westerbeke wants to do the job. Appearance or reality? If the latter, I wonder if he pokes around too much, if he will be removed from the mission.  

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Durable Goods Decline Second Month; Key Take-Aways

Inquiring minds are digging into the Census Bureau Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders for September 2014 for hints at 4th quarter GDP.

The headline data shows new orders for manufactured durable goods in September decreased $3.2 billion or 1.3 percent. This follows an 18.3 percent decline in August.

However, transportation (especially commercial and military plane orders) are so large and volatile, the overall results are nearly useless.

For  example: In June, new orders were up 22.5% with transportation orders up 73.3%. Nondefense aircraft and parts orders were up a whopping 315.6%. Last month, nondefense aircraft and parts was down 74% and this month another 16%.

Key Components

Instead of focusing on the headline numbers, let's dive into the report to isolate key components.

The report itemizes all the categories, but it's not easy to scroll through. This table I put together should help.

ItemSepAugJulAug-Sep %ChgJul-Aug % ChgJun-Jul % Chg
Total New Orders241,633244,864299,862-1.3-18.322.5
Ex-Transportation Orders168,186168,603167,491-0.20.7-0.6
Ex-Defense Orders230,654234,273289,442-1.5-19.124.9
Transportation Orders73,44776,261132,271-3.7-42.473.3
Capital Goods Orders91,35395,345144,635-4.2-34.152.5
Non-Defense Capital Goods Orders81,98586,625136,323-5.4-36.560.9
Defense Capital Goods Orders9,3688,7208,3127.44.9-17.9
Core Capital Goods Orders71,82473,07872,836-1.70.3-0.1
Core Capital Goods Shipments70,23870,39070,307-0.20.12.0

Line items (except the last line which shows shipments) are new orders, in millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted.

Key Take-Aways

The last two lines are the ones to watch.

Core Capital Goods are non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft. It's a measure of business investment and business sentiment. The 1.7% decline in orders is the largest since January.

Shipments factor into GDP estimates. Core capital goods shipments were down 0.2% this month. Core capital shipments and orders suggest that 4th quarter GDP is not off to a flying start.

 Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

El-Erian: "Europe Is One or Two Rounds of Sanctions From Recession"; El-Erian Far Too Optimistic

In a speech on BRICs at the Peterson International Institute of Economics former PIMCO co-head El-Erian made the claim Europe Is One or Two Rounds of Sanctions From Recession.
The West, and Europe in particular, is one or two rounds of sanctions and counter-sanctions away from entering into a new recession, chairman of President Barack Obama’s Global Development Council Mohamed El-Erian stated Monday.

“We are one or two rounds of sanctions and counter-sanctions away from the European politics over the Ukraine tipping Europe into a recession,” El-Erian said in a speech on the BRICS economies at the Peterson International Institute of Economics.

He noted that the impact of level three sectoral sanctions against Russia is “taking the West into a recession through sanctions to the energy sector.”

Arguing against the notion that Western economies are managing to keep pace after the crisis and despite the sanctions against Russia, El-Erian stated, “It may be chugging along in the United States, but Europe is looking at flat growth.”

According to Obama’s global development adviser, Ukraine continues to be a problem. El-Erian concluded, “The current state of play in Ukraine is lose, lose, lose” for Ukraine, Russia, and the West.
El-Erian Far Too Optimistic

It is not going to take another round or two of sanctions to tip Europe into recession.

France, Italy, and Spain are already there by any realistic set of measures, and Germany is in serious decline.

Unless one uses the strict definition of two consecutive quarters of declining growth, Europe is arguably in recession right now. Greece, Spain, and Italy are actually in economic depressions.

El-Erian is far behind the curve, especially if he thought he was making a dramatic statement.

But yes, sanctions are inane and they will make matters worse. And no, the US will not decouple from the global economy.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Most Expensive Housing Markets in US are Liberal: Correlation or Cause?

Here's an interesting article thanks to Jed Kolko, Chief Economist at Trulia Trends via Washington Post Wonkblog: The most expensive housing markets in the U.S. are also the most liberal.

The relationship between housing affordability and politics in the US is startlingly strong as these charts by Jed Kolko shows.



Median asking price in dollars per square foot is on the vertical axis. Margin for Obama over Romney in the 2012 election is on the horizontal axis.

With the exception of Orange County California, all of the high priced counties voted for Obama.



The Washington Post notes ....

Nine of the 10 bluest markets had median home asking prices above $130 per square foot. All of the 10 reddest markets had prices below that. In the dark blue markets, housing cost almost twice as much ($227 per square foot) as in the red ones ($119). In metro Washington — this is not just the District — the average home asking price was about $177.

Trulia notes ...

Households in blue markets tend to have higher incomes. But those higher incomes are not enough to offset higher home prices. Our middle-class affordability measure, which reflects the share of homes for sale within reach of a median-income household, is significantly lower in bluer markets. Furthermore, blue markets have lower homeownership and greater income inequality than red markets.

Sorted Data

Trulia made the data available. I sorted by price per square foot high to low. Here are the results.

U.S. MetroVote margin: Obama vs Romney, 2012 (positive #s = blue markets; negative #s = red markets)Price decline in housing bust, peak to trough (FHFA)Year-over-year price change, Sept. 2014 (Trulia)Median asking price per square foot, $, Oct. 2014 (Trulia)
San Francisco, CA58%-23%9.9%613
Honolulu, HI39%-11%4.1%439
San Jose, CA42%-26%8.6%430
Orange County, CA-6%-33%4.8%363
Long Island, NY6%-20%2.9%350
Oakland, CA50%-39%11.9%342
Los Angeles, CA42%-35%6.9%334
New York, NY-NJ49%-18%4.3%320
Ventura County, CA7%-39%12.4%305
San Diego, CA8%-35%1.8%296
Fairfield County, CT11%-21%-0.5%237
Middlesex County, MA27%-13%7.8%236
Boston, MA25%-17%4.5%229
Peabody, MA16%-18%4.0%212
Seattle, WA35%-26%8.9%197
Bethesda-Rockville-Frederick, MD34%-22%2.6%189
Sacramento, CA9%-48%10.1%188
Edison-New Brunswick, NJ3%-22%6.2%180
Miami, FL24%-47%14.0%180
Washington, DC-VA-MD-WV37%-25%3.2%177
Riverside-San Bernardino, CA4%-50%10.6%164
Providence, RI-MA25%-26%2.8%162
Baltimore, MD18%-22%-1.1%161
Portland, OR-WA23%-25%7.5%157
Denver, CO13%-8%9.4%152
North Port-Bradenton-Sarasota, FL-10%-50%9.6%150
New Haven, CT22%-21%-0.6%146
Worcester, MA9%-23%4.9%146
Philadelphia, PA31%-11%4.3%146
Fort Lauderdale, FL35%-48%6.9%143
Hartford, CT23%-14%-0.4%143
West Palm Beach, FL17%-49%11.7%138
Springfield, MA32%-14%2.5%137
Albany, NY16%-6%-0.7%135
Tacoma, WA11%-32%7.5%134
Charleston, SC-5%-21%7.7%134
Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL-17%-56%9.8%133
Newark, NJ-PA21%-20%1.9%133
Fresno, CA2%-49%8.5%133
Austin, TX7%-4%9.9%130
Lake County-Kenosha County, IL-WI9%-27%11.3%130
Chicago, IL32%-28%10.0%129
Salt Lake City, UT-21%-22%4.7%129
Virginia Beach-Norfolk, VA-NC11%-19%4.4%129
Bakersfield, CA-17%-52%8.2%126
Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN-WI12%-26%10.0%125
Phoenix, AZ-11%-51%3.8%123
Wilmington, DE-MD-NJ24%-20%3.8%123
Warren-Troy-Farmington Hills, MI3%-37%7.8%117
Camden, NJ24%-23%0.6%116
Richmond, VA5%-20%2.7%116
Milwaukee, WI5%-15%5.8%116
Pittsburgh, PA-1%-2%6.9%116
Allentown, PA-NJ2%-21%2.6%114
Las Vegas, NV15%-61%9.0%113
Raleigh, NC6%-9%4.2%113
Dallas, TX-10%-6%7.7%112
Tucson, AZ7%-38%1.4%111
Orlando, FL8%-48%7.7%110
Albuquerque, NM13%-17%0.6%110
Nashville, TN-16%-9%5.6%109
Jacksonville, FL-19%-38%7.0%109
Colorado Springs, CO-21%-12%4.0%107
San Antonio, TX-8%-4%4.5%107
Tampa-St. Petersburg, FL3%-43%5.0%106
Houston, TX-12%-4%10.7%106
New Orleans, LA0%-11%7.5%102
Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL-13%-50%13.1%100
Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN-16%-10%9.0%100
Baton Rouge, LA-12%-3%1.3%100
Charlotte, NC-SC2%-16%7.0%99
Oklahoma City, OK-27%-3%4.0%98
St. Louis, MO-IL7%-12%4.3%98
Knoxville, TN-34%-8%2.1%98
Birmingham, AL-20%-13%11.5%96
Buffalo, NY14%-2%3.1%96
Atlanta, GA1%-26%11.1%95
Louisville, KY-IN-3%-6%11.0%94
Fort Worth, TX-23%-6%6.4%94
Columbus, OH7%-10%6.5%94
Omaha, NE-IA-10%-5%5.4%93
Greenville, SC-30%-8%5.9%92
Kansas City, MO-KS-3%-12%6.6%92
Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL-7%-46%11.1%92
Gary, IN21%-11%6.8%91
Little Rock, AR-11%-4%-6.0%90
Tulsa, OK-32%-4%7.3%90
Syracuse, NY17%-3%4.1%90
Memphis, TN-MS-AR12%-14%4.6%89
Greensboro, NC1%-10%2.6%89
El Paso, TX32%-8%-0.9%88
Rochester, NY11%-2%2.0%87
Grand Rapids, MI-9%-22%9.1%87
Cleveland, OH24%-18%4.1%86
Akron, OH13%-16%6.9%84
Columbia, SC2%-11%-0.9%83
Toledo, OH21%-20%12.5%81
Indianapolis, IN-8%-7%7.8%80
Detroit, MI47%-40%11.4%75
Dayton, OH-7%-13%8.8%74


Congratulations to California

  • California has seven of the top-ten least-affordable metro areas.
  • New York managed two top-ten least affordable spots.
  • Massachusetts garnered three top-fifteen slots. 

Congratulations (of sorts) go to California.

Top 10 Cities by Population in 2013

City RankCity PopulationCost per Sq FootCost Ranking
1New York, New York 8,405,8373208
2Los Angeles, California3,884,3073347
3Chicago, Illinois2,718,78212942
4Houston, Texas2,195,91410666
5Philadelphia, Pennsylvania1,553,16514629
6Phoenix, Arizona 1,513,36712347
7San Antonio, Texas 1,409,01910764
8San Diego, California1,355,89629610
9Dallas, Texas1,257,67611257
10San Jose, California998,5374303


I created the above table by combining City Size  data with Trulia data.

Top 10 Red vs. Blue

Of the 10 largest Metro Areas in the US, five voted for Obama and five for Romney. Note: The above table shows city population not metro area.

The Texas Metro Areas (Houston, San Antonio, Dallas) and the Arizona Metro Areas (Phoenix and San Antonio) voted for Romney.

The highest ranking red Metro Area in the list was Phoenix. It placed 47 out of 100 in cost, with a median cost per square foot of  $123 vs. San Jose, California with a median cost of $430 per square foot.

Correlation or cause? Union work rules, land availability, and building restrictions (or lack thereof) are all likely in play.

Correction

I stated 5 of the top 10 cities voted for Romney. The Trulia data is for Metro Areas. The above paragraphs modified accordingly.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Monday, October 27, 2014

"Will These Central Bank Morons Ever Learn?" asks Albert Edwards at Societe General

Central Banks and the Business Cycle

I like it when someone besides a few financial bloggers takes the gloves off and starts asking some hard-hitting questions.

In Cross Asset Research last week, Albert Edwards at Societe General did just that. Emphasis in italics is mine.
Fragile and vulnerable in itself, the US recovery now battles against the rest of the world, which like a horror movie is dragging it down into a hellish Ice Age underworld. The problem is that at these stratospheric valuations, the market does not need to suffer an ACTUAL recession to see a crash. Like October 1987, just the fear of recession will be enough to trigger a massive market move.

On these pages we have a very simple thesis as to what will bring an end to this grotesque, QE-fueled market overvaluation. Simply put, the central banks for all their huffing and puffing cannot eliminate the business cycle. And they should have realised after the 2008 Great Recession that the longer they suppress volatility, both economic and market, the greater the subsequent crash. Will these morons ever learn?

The problem is that most risk assets, and especially equities and corporate bonds, are very expensive and priced for a long cycle. Meanwhile, this recovery has failed to generate any cyclical upward pressure to inflation – indeed quite the reverse. The global economy resembles a knackered old V8 engine which is now only firing on one cylinder (US). Hence, any data suggesting that the US economy is now also flagging were always likely to cause a meltdown as investors feared the imminent arrival of Japanese-style outright deflation. We note with interest that US 5-year inflation expectations in 5 years’ time have not fallen anything like as quickly as 5y expectations (see chart below). This suggests to me a continued misplaced market (over)-confidence about central banks’ ability to control events.



Only one day before last Wednesday’s flash crash, Guy Debelle, head of the BIS market committee, said investors had become far too complacent, wrongly believing that central banks can protect them, and many staking bets that are bound to “blow up” at the first sign of stress. A market loss of confidence in policy makers’ ability to control events has always been part of our Ice Age thesis. US inflation expectations in particular will fall an awful long way if investors fear the US cycle is about to fail.

I have always thought that this would all end the way Christopher Wood explained in his GREED and fear publication last November: “The key issue is what might trigger a market correction . The market consensus continues to focus on the tightening in financial conditions triggered by “tapering”. Still such a hypothetical correction is not so big a deal to GREED & fear, since any real equity decline caused by tapering is likely to lead, under a Fed run by Janet Yellen, to renewed easing. The real threat to US equities is when the American economy fails to re-accelerate as forecast”. Certainly, in my view , at these elevated valuations, it will not take much to bring down the entire ‘pyramid of piffle’.
Other Economic Illiterates

Just two days before Albert penned the above, a reader sent me a link to the Salon article America’s ugly economic truth: Why austerity is generating another slowdown by David Dayen.
Austerity amid recovery has been a disaster everywhere it’s been tried, and the fact that America’s course looks better right now than the more calamitous policy choices in Europe or the rest of the world brings little comfort. Anyway, a global slowdown, which appears to be the current path absent concerted action, will inevitably hit us at home.

David Wessel of the Brookings Institution is right to say that this terrible outlook for economic growth represents a choice by policymakers. With borrowing costs once again near historic lows, Congress could simply decide to finance some more investments. Europe could finally put an end to the economic straitjacket it’s chosen to wear for over half a decade. That dreaded dirty word – “stimulus” – could be employed once again.
US vs. Europe

For starters, austerity has never been tried. Deficit spending is still rampant in Europe.

Dayen never mentions the structural problems with the euro itself, Europe's demographics, or productivity differences between France and Germany (mainly stemming from socialism and inane work rules).

Instead, like most economic illiterates, Dayen believes Europe can spend its way out of trouble. The fact of the matter is fiscal stimulus adds to deficits and any alleged improvement comes at enormous expense down the line. Then, as soon as the stimulus stops, guess what happens.

Compounding the problem, union work rules add to the cost of stimulus. Europe and the US both need to address massive overpayment of government workers vs. the private sector.

Fix the structural problems and most of the rest will take care of itself.

Dayen cheers the U.S. recovery vs. Europe. He overlooks the massive bubbles in stocks and corporate bonds.

US vs. Japan

Dayen wants more stimulus. Pray tell, what the hell do you call interest rates at zero and trillion dollar deficits for years?

Dayen is too bleeping blind to see that Japan tried things his way and failed. All Japan has to show for decades of deflation fighting is debt to GDP over 250%, the highest of any major county, by far.

He also fails to note the housing bubble is a direct result of the Fed not taking its medicine in 2000 and 2001.

Academic Wonderland

The idea that the Fed can eliminate the business cycle is clearly idiotic (bubbles of increasing magnitude in 2000, 2007, and now should be proof enough).

Nonetheless, that is precisely what the vast majority of economic writers believe. The writers all live in Academic Wonderland after years of Keynesian teaching.  Only those who believe in voodoo can get a job at a central bank.

In contrast, the average seventh-grader can see that building bridges to nowhere and overpaying for labor on top of it is doomed to fail.

Taught to be Stupid

You have to be taught to be stupid!

I have discussed these points before, most recently in James Grant Conference Video: Inflation Expectations, Growth, Policy Problems; Europe Has Become Japan.

On October 19, I wrote Challenge to Keynesians "Prove Rising Prices Provide an Overall Economic Benefit" in response to an article in the Financial Times.

Will the Morons Ever Learn?

Albert Edwards asked "Will These Morons Ever Learn?" I added the implied words "Central Bank", but need to remove them.

Just three days ago Hillary Clinton stated "Don't Let Anyone Tell You It's Corporations and Businesses that Create Jobs".

How moronic is that statement?

Keynesian and monetary fools are in complete control of academia, central banks, and most media.

Will the morons learn? Unfortunately, no. Why? Because they are morons, and by definition they can't.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Hillary Clinton: "Don't Let Anyone Tell You It's Corporations and Businesses that Create Jobs"; Ten Spectacular Failures

On October 24, while campaigning for Martha Coakley for governor of Massachusetts, Hillary Clinton made one of the most absurd political statements in history "Don't Let Anyone Tell You It's Corporations and Businesses that Create Jobs."

Clinton continued, "You know that old theory, trickledown economics. That has been tried, that has failed. It has failed rather spectacularly. One of the things my husband says when people say, 'What did you bring to Washington?' He says, 'I brought arithmetic.'"

Wow.

Just in case you think that quote is out of context, here's a video clip courtesy of Town Hall;



If Hillary wins the Democratic nomination, expect to see that clip, over and over and over.

Is she really stupid enough to believe what she said?

I leave it up to the reader to decide, but 100% without a doubt, Hillary believes big government, more regulation, and higher taxes are the key ingredients to growth.

Clinton calls trickle down a "spectacular failure". I propose this 10-item alternative list. I could easily expand the list to 100 items, all of which can be attributed to buckets 1, 2, 3, and 10.

Ten Spectacular Failures

  1. The Fed
  2. Fractional reserve lending
  3. Deficit spending
  4. Central bank manipulation of interest rates
  5. US foreign policy
  6. Warmongering
  7. Nation building
  8. Sanctions
  9. Public unions
  10. Politicians in general

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Sunday, October 26, 2014

Another Unbelievable Stress-Free Test; Whitewash Math and Deferred Tax Assets

In an effort to fool the public into believing the latest round of bank stress tests were actually designed to find stress, the ECB found 25 scapegoats, with the biggest losers in Italy and Greece.

Interested parties may wish to slog through the full 178 page Stress Test Report.

Capital Shortfalls


Non-Performing Loans

Here's a chart from PDF page 75 (report page 67) with thanks to ZeroHedge.



There is €879 billion in nonperforming loans but the report concludes bank assets are only €48 billion overstated. Apparently we are to believe there are adequate loan loss provisions for rest.

Reuters reports ECB Fails 25 Banks in Health Check but Problems Largely Solved.
Roughly one in five of the euro zone's top lenders failed landmark health checks at the end of last year but most have since repaired their finances, the European Central Bank said on Sunday. Italy faces the biggest challenge with nine of its banks falling short and two still needing to raise funds.

"This seems as if it has been pretty unstressful," said Karl Whelan, an economist with University College Dublin.

"The real issue is the size of the capital shortfall and that is very, very small. I don't feel a whole lot more reassured about the health of the banking system today than last week."
€48 Billion Shortfall

The Financial Times reports ECB Says Banks Overvalued Assets by €48bn.
The European Central Bank’s dissection of the books of the eurozone’s biggest banks has found lenders overvalued their assets by €48bn.

The results of the ECB’s examination of balance sheets worth €22tn, known as the Asset Quality Review, will require the 130 lenders who took part in the exercise to adjust the value of their assets in their accounts or prudential requirements.

A quarter of the reduction, €12bn, will fall on Italian lenders, an amount just short of 1 per cent of their risk-weighted assets. Greek banks will have to lower their asset values by €7.6bn, or almost 4 per cent of their risk-weighted assets.

Philippe Legrain, an economist and former adviser to then European Commission president José Manuel Barroso, described the tests as a “whitewash”.

“The ECB singles out less important banks in less important countries and gives the German banks a clear bill of health,” Mr Legrain said.

German lenders will have to lower the value of their assets by €6.7bn and their French counterparts by €5.6bn.

The AQR reviewed 800 portfolios, which together made up more than 57 per cent of banks’ risk-weighted assets. The ECB said they examined 119,000 borrowers and valued 170,000 items of collateral. Supervisors also built 765 models to challenge banks’ estimates of their provisions.

The 130 banks account for 81.6 per cent of all eurozone assets.
Whitewash Math

Non-performing loans total €879 billion out of a total balance sheet of about €22 trillion. That's approximately 4% of loans.

Of the 130 banks, 25 failed. That seems like a lot. However, the total amount of under-capitalization is a mere €48 billion. That is an overall asset overvaluation of a mere 0.218%.

Anyone seriously believe that €48 billion is credible with France, Italy, and Spain in or near recession (and Germany heading there)? I don't. It's not even a generous rounding error.

Have Spanish banks written off 100% of their bad property loans? What about sovereign bonds assumed to be 100 percent risk-free? Didn't Greece prove bonds payments are not sacrosanct?

What happens when the eurozone splinters? Here's the answer: German banks are going to take a massive hit.

Deferred Tax Assets

Huky Guru has some interesting figures about Spanish banks.

About a year ago, Guru reported that a Reclassification of DTAs (Deferred Tax Assets) provided an extra €30 billion capital for Spanish banks.

Guru brought up the subject again today in Putting the Stress Tests in Context.

Paraphrasing Guru ... Accounting magic and government decree has allowed banks to compute an extra €30 billion in capital for Spanish banks via DTAs. Without that €30 billion, the average Tier 1 capital for Spanish banks would have fallen from 9.1% to 7.1%. More than one bank would have failed the test.

Spanish Banks Plow Into Spanish Sovereign Bonds



Guru notes "Spanish banks hold Close to €231.519 billion in Spanish bonds, almost twice around the capital of the Spanish banking system."

At least six Spanish banks have massive leverage in bonds. Catalunya Banc and NCG are particularly exposed.

Conclusion

The entire exercise was another stress-free farce.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

What Do Seven Billion People Do? Top 10 Mega-Cities by Population 2014 vs. 2030 Estimate

Reader Bran who lives in Spain sent some interesting charts of population, expected population growth, the world's largest cites, and what people do for a living. I don't have links for the charts, but most show the origin.

Seven Billion People



Breakdown
  • 4.30 Billion Work
  • 1.90 Billion too Young to Work
  • 0.43 Billion Unemployed
  • 0.58 Billion 65 or Older

Total about 7.2 Billion people

Cities With Projected 2030 Population of 10+ Million



Top 10 Mega-Cities by Population



Anyone have any concerns over these numbers in regards to jobs, food, housing, cost of education,  healthcare costs, or retirement?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Saturday, October 25, 2014

Home Prices Drop in 69 of 70 Chinese Cities; Did the Pool of Greater Fools Run Out?

China eased purchase restrictions last month ending its four-year campaign to contain home prices. And what a ridiculous campaign it was. Prices are down less than 1% this month and less then 1% year-over-year.

Bloomberg reports China Home-Price Drop Spreads as Easing Doesn’t Halt Fall.
Prices dropped in 69 of the 70 cities in September from August, the National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement today, the most since January 2011 when the government changed the way it compiles the data. They fell in 68 cities in August.

The central bank on Sept. 30 eased mortgage rules for homebuyers that have paid off existing loans, reversing course after a four-year campaign to contain home prices as Premier Li Keqiang seeks to prevent economic growth from drifting too far below the government’s 7.5 percent annual target. Home sales slumped 11 percent in the first nine months of this year.

Developers will keep prices attractive as they open more projects toward the end of the year to meet sales targets, boosting supply and increasing competition, Ping An Securities Co. Shenzhen-based analyst Yang Kan wrote in an Oct. 14 report.

New-home prices fell 0.7 percent from August in Beijing and 0.9 percent in Shanghai, according to the government. The port city of Xiamen in southern Fujian province was the only city where prices didn’t fall, remaining unchanged from the previous month.

Prices in Shanghai fell 0.8 percent from a year earlier, the first annual decline since December 2012, compared to a 17.5 percent jump in January this year. Hangzhou, the capital of southeastern Zhejiang province, had the biggest decline among all cities, with 7.6 percent.

The average new-home price in 100 cities tracked by SouFun Holdings Ltd. fell 0.9 percent in September from August, dropping for the fifth consecutive month. The price rose 1.1 percent from a year earlier, narrowing for a ninth month in a row, China’s biggest real estate website owner said.

The People’s Bank of China’s new rules give homeowners who have paid off their mortgages and want a second property the same advantages as first-time buyers, including a 30 percent minimum down payment, compared to at least 60 percent previously, and interest-rate discounts of as much as 30 off the central bank’s benchmark. The PBOC also eased a ban on mortgages for people without home loan debt who want to buy a third home, allowing banks determine down payments and rates.

Home sales in September jumped 40 percent from August, the biggest increase this year, according to Bloomberg News calculations, based on a government report earlier this week.
Did the Pool of Greater Fools  Run Out?

All it took for china to reverse course was a .8% year-over-year decline.

Home sales are down 11% this year, but that may not last long if September is any indication. Then again, the easing of restrictions may have suckered in the last remaining greater fools.

Either way, I laugh at the assessment analyst Yang Kan who says "developers will keep prices attractive as they open more projects toward the end of the year to meet sales targets".

The only thing that will make prices attractive is a 50% decline in price. That's how big China's property bubble is. 

Even in China the pool of greater fools will eventually run out. Perhaps it already has.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Friday, October 24, 2014

Hyperventilation Charade: EU Demands Another €2.1 Billion from UK, "We Won't Pay," Says Furious Cameron

Things are about to get more interesting in the EU as a review of budget procedures shows the UK, Greece, and Italy owe more money, but Germany and France will get money back.

Curiously, this came about following a review of non-profit organizations from churches and universities to trade unions, charities and sports clubs. The time period is 2002-2009.

Cameron's Obvious Bluff

UK prime minister David Cameron is already battling French President Francois Hollande abroad, and UKIP at home.

Thus, Cameron's limited choice is to bluff as usual: "We Won't Pay," Says Furious Cameron.
In a vivid display of public fury at European Union technocrats, British Prime Minister David Cameron refused to pay a surprise 2.1-billion-euro bill on Friday as EU leaders ordered an urgent review of how the budget figures were arrived at.

"It's an appalling way to behave," Cameron said. "I'm not paying that bill on Dec. 1. If people think I am they've got another thing coming. It is not going to happen."

EU ministers will hold an emergency meeting on the issue next month. Cameron said he wanted to understand the technical calculations and was also ready to mount a legal challenge.

EU officials insisted the revision, which also saw Italy and even crisis-hit Greece asked to pay more while France and Germany would get rebates, was part of an annual statistical exercise handled by civil servants, not politicians.

Cameron noted that annual revisions to the payments had never been so great - an effect, EU officials said, of a once-in-a-generation review of how national incomes are calculated that found Britain was richer than it had previously declared.

Officials at EU statistics office Eurostat said that was a result mainly of taking more account of money flowing in 2002-09 to non-profit organizations - from churches and universities to trade unions, charities and sports clubs.

Cameron has demanded reforms and plans a referendum on EU membership if he manages to secure re-election next May.

His Eurosceptic opponents, gaining ground fast on his Conservative Party, accused the premier of misleading voters.

"David Cameron once claimed that he had reduced the EU budget -- but the UK contribution went up and now, quite incredibly, our contribution goes up a second time. It's just outrageous," said UKIP leader Nigel Farage.

"The EU is like a thirsty vampire feasting on UK taxpayers' blood. We need to protect the innocent victims who are us."
Hyperventilation Charade

It's easy to see through Cameron's hyperventilation charade.

Cameron did not really say "We won't pay" as the Reuters headline states. Rather, Cameron stated "I'm not paying that bill on Dec. 1".

The latter statement would be true if Cameron paid the bill on any date before or after December 1, or the amount changed by a penny.

This is the kind of wishy-washy nonsense that Cameron pulls all the time. Unfortunately, conservative believers fall for it every time.

Similarly, Cameron promises an up-down vote on UK membership in the EU, but only if he is reelected. Would he even keep that promise? Who the hell knows?

Cameron's pledge is to first get the EU to change its rules more to the UK's liking. If he succeeds, then and only then will he offer the vote (and of course he has to win reelection on top of it).

Odds Cameron gets the rule changes he seeks are approximately 0%. You know it, I know it, the world knows it, and even Cameron knows it.

The promise of a 2017 up-down vote is nothing more than an election ploy coupled with blatant arrogance.

Liar, Not a Conservative

As I have stated before, Cameron is a liar, not a conservative. He is in a coalition bed with the Liberal-Democrats, a pro-euro, pro-Labour, pro-climate-change, free education, and progressive tax party.

With that set of bed-mates, no conservative in their right mind should believe a damn thing he claims to stand for.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Japanese Style Deflation Coming? Where? Fed Falling Behind the Curve? Which Way?

There's some interesting discussion points in the UK-based Absolute Return Partners October 2014 Letter, by Niels C. Jensen, most of which I agree with, others not.
Japan-Style Deflation in Our Backyard?

It is no secret that we have been long-standing believers in deflation being a more probable outcome of the 2008-09 crisis than high inflation. What has changed over the past six months is that the world has begun to move in different directions. Whereas rising unit labour costs in the U.S. make outright deflation in that country quite unlikely, the same cannot be said of the Eurozone.



Japan-style deflation across the Eurozone is no longer an outrageous thought. As you can see from chart 1, there is a close link between CPI and demographics. That has certainly been the case in Japan and I don’t see any reasons why it should be any different in Europe. The negative demographic trends are perhaps not as acute in Europe as they were in Japan in the early to mid 1990s, so one might expect a less dramatic outcome here, but the writing is on the wall. Furthermore, Japan’s problems were multiplied due to an almost complete lack of political recognition and willingness to take drastic action. At least, with Mario Draghi in charge of the ECB, there seems to be a willingness to do something.
Deflation and "Willingness To Do Something"

Jensen is mistaken about Japan's willingness to take action. Japan has a debt-to-GDP ratio of 250%, highest of any major developed country, as a direct consequence of fighting deflation.

Japan piled on debt, built bridges to nowhere, and engaged in other wasteful spending, all of which made matters worse. Taking on debt to fight deflation is insane. Yet that is exactly what France and Italy want now!

Japan's QE certainly did not help either. Both policies addicted Japan to 0% interest rates forever (until of course Japan blows up).

To suggest that the ECB can do something meaningful with European demographics being what they are, the flaws in the euro being what they are, and lack of willingness for France and Italy to initiate badly-needed structural reforms, is simply wrong.

Holding down interest rates and state-sponsored stimulus will have the identical result as in Japan.

As for wages, they are actually rising not only in the US, but also in Europe as I pointed out in European Service Prices Plunge at Steepest Rate Since January 2010; Reflections on Keynesian Stupidity.

In the US, the Fed did stave off for now, another round of price deflation. However, that came at the expense of creating monstrous asset bubbles.

The bursting of asset bubbles is inherently deflationary, and much more damaging than falling prices because of the impact asset prices have on asset-based loans.

I propose falling prices should be welcome across the board.

Behind the Curve?
Is the Fed Falling Behind the Curve?

As mentioned earlier, the picture in the U.S. – and to a degree also in the UK - is quite different. The Fed increasingly looks like it is behind the curve with the Fed Funds rate remaining unchanged despite a significant rise in unit labour costs.



Not only does that suggest a meaningful rise in the U.S. policy rate over the next couple of years – and therefore also possibly a further rise in longer term rates - but it also suggests a relatively strong U.S. dollar. Forward rates on the Fed Funds rate suggest it will reach 1.50% by June of next year; however, if the latest estimates for unit labour costs are painting a true picture of inflation in the pipeline, one could argue that the Fed Funds rate could go substantially higher.
Behind the Curve? Which Way?

Curiously, St. Louis Fed Governor James Bullard says Fed Should Consider Delay in Ending QE because "Inflation expectations are declining in the U.S."

That's nonsense of course because of the asset bubbles the Fed spawned. With interest rates so low across the world, the chase for yield is on.

Opportunity in Japan
Which Equity Markets Offer Most Potential?

One area I have not elaborated on yet is Japan. There are strong indications that Japan has finally turned the corner economically. At the same time, return on equity has returned to pre-crisis levels in Japan, but valuations have not.

Japanese return on equity is back to an all-time high



With a more or less fully priced U.S. equity market and a Federal Reserve Bank at risk of falling seriously behind the curve, and a Europe where it is hard to see where growth is going to come from (ex. U.K.), Japan looks remarkably interesting, and I expect it to be one of the better performing mature equity markets over the next few years. Just don’t forget to hedge your currency risk. I am not saying that the Yen will fall, but there is enough uncertainty surrounding the Yen that I would rather not have to worry about that aspect.
Japanese Equities and the Yen

It's certainly debatable whether Japan has turned the corner economically. Nonetheless, on a valuation basis alone, I have been recommending a yen-hedged position in Japanese equities.

Whether or not the Yen plunges will have to do with Abenomics, and how Japan eventually handles (or doesn't) zero percent rates.  

Jensen's comment that US equities are "more or less fully priced" is silly. US equities are priced well beyond perfection in one of the biggest valuation bubbles in history.

Pension Fund Piling On

Jensen concludes with an interesting chart and comments about piling on.
Investors (well, most investors) continue to pile in to equities, as if they are the solution to their return challenge.

   

Pension funds are one example of such investors. If such pension funds have fixed obligations (called defined benefit plans in the UK), they currently struggle to generate the level of re turns they need to meet their obligations.

Even if there are good reasons to believe that the prolonged rally can continue for a little longer, there are equally good reasons to believe that the current equity bull market may end in tears. Such is the disconnect between stock valuations and economic fundamentals in some markets.
Disconnects

I agree with Jensen on Japanese equities, hedging the Yen, and the prospects of deflation in Europe.

The chart on asset allocations is particularly interesting. Investors are overweight equities just as they were were in 2000 and 2007, and I believe with dire consequences.

Jensen says "Statistically, equity markets fall 40-50% (as they did in 2008-09) only a couple of times in a life time, so why somebody is forecasting the next bloodbath to be around the corner is quite frankly beyond me."

It seems to me that equities plunged in 2000 and again in 2007. So that was twice in a seven year timespan. Given valuations are equally extreme now, caution is more than in order.

Japan prove stocks can stay depressed for decades. And that can happen again, someplace else, besides Japan.

Central Bank Action

I disagree with Jensen on the need for the ECB to do anything about falling prices. For discussion, please see Challenge to Keynesians "Prove Rising Prices Provide an Overall Economic Benefit".

Inquiring minds may also wish to consider James Grant Conference Video: Inflation Expectations, Growth, Policy Problems; Europe Has Become Japan.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com 

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