In Memory of Spock: Live Long and Prosper; Is He or Isn't He? Fish Tomatoes, Hand Transplants, Sci-Fi vs. Reality

One of my favorite characters in TV history was Star Trek's "Spock". Yesterday, Leonard Nimoy, Spock of ‘Star Trek,’ Died at 83. Leonard Nimoy, the sonorous, gaunt-faced actor who won a worshipful global following as Mr. Spock, the resolutely logical human-alien first officer of the Starship Enterprise in the television and movie juggernaut “Star Trek,” died on Friday morning at his home in the Bel Air section of Los Angeles. He was 83.His wife, Susan Bay Nimoy, confirmed his death, saying the cause was end-stage chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.Mr. Nimoy announced last year that he had the disease, attributing it to years of smoking, a...

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Greece Negotiations Resume Again; "Constructive Ambiguity"; Schäuble Outmaneuvered!

On Friday, the German Bundestag Backed the Greek Bailout Extension. Ahead of the vote, many commented that Greece collapsed. It's not all that simple as I have explained.The likely explanation for the alleged collapse of Syriza is Greece did not have a primary account surplus. Had it left now, it would have been forced off the euro, violating a campaign promise of Syriza.Caving in required temporary caving in of other campaign promises.Both Sides Got SomethingThe four-month extension gave Greece a better chance to prepare for default while allowing Greece to stay on the euro. The extension also gave the ECB four more months to prepare for Grexit or default.Properly analyzed, both sides got something. Isn't that what usually happens in complex negotiations?Third Bailout NeededMeanwhile, it's...

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Panic in Ukraine Over Food, Empty Stores and Protests; Strategic Food Reserve Empty

Here's a brief update from "Ellen" who lives in Lviv, a city in Western Ukraine. Hello MishWe have quite a panic over the collapse of currency. People buy any food product that can be stored. Everyone wants to rid of Hryvnia. We haven't seen anything like this since 1991 when the Soviet Union collapsed. Stores are empty. It is hard to say what exchange rate this days, somewhere between 34 and 42 There were riots in downtown today. A group of protesters was beaten up by police. They marched through downtown and gave a last warning to government officials. Next time they said they will shoot some officials. Ukraine is on a brink, but the West is not in a hurry to give us money. Perhaps they want something.  Maybe they know the money will end up with corrupt officials who will steal it.Either...

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"NowCast" - The Evolution of GDP Forecasting

In the wake of existing home sales reports on Monday, and new home sales yesterday, GDP and residential investment forecasts came tumbling down.Check out the latest "GDP Nowcast" from the Atlanta Fed."The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2015 was 1.7 percent on February 26, down from 1.9 percent on February 18. The first-quarter nowcast for real residential investment growth fell from 11.1 percent to 2.3 percent following Monday's existing-home sales release from the National Association of Realtors and yesterday morning's releases on sales and construction costs of single-family...

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Chicago PMI Crashes to 5 1/2 Year Low: Production, New Orders, Backlogs Suffer Double Digit Declines

Fourth quarter GDP was revised lower today to 2.2 percent from 2.6 percent previously estimated.Looking ahead, I think we are going to see some shocking downward estimates in the months to come. Meanwhile, a shocking PMI report came out today.Chicago PMI Crashes to 5 1/2 Year LowISM Chicago reports Chicago Business Barometer At 5½-Year LowThe Chicago Business Barometer plunged 13.6 points to 45.8 in February, the lowest level since July 2009 and the first time in contraction since April 2013. The sharp fall in business activity in February came as Production, New Orders, Order Backlogs and Employment all suffered double digit losses, leaving...

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Recession is On the Way: Questioning One's Sanity; Beat the Crowd, Panic Now!

In 2006-2007 I called for a recession. We got a big one. I called for another one in 2011, as did the ECRI. That recession never happened.50% is not a very good recession predicting track record except in comparison to consensus economic opinions that have never once in history predicted a recession. Consensus opinion is batting a perfect 0.00%Investigating the Record By the way, the ECRI was late in calling the recession of 2007. They still deny it. And questions regarding the 2001 recession and ECRI have still not been answered. I have talked about all of this before, and it's worth a recap, if for no other reason than to note the difficulty...

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Ukraine Rations Food; Interbank Rate New Record Low; Monetization of Bonds; "Devaluation Kerosene"; Electronics a Store of Value

A chart of Ukraine's currency is nonsensical once again today.Supposedly the hryvnia rallied again today, if only by a miniscule amount 0.15%. Yet, once again the chart is complete nonsense. Black Market RateThe Black Market Rate today is a bit improved, with a bid/ask spread of 29.45 to 34.55. How long that rally lasts is questionable. I presume not long.If one could exchange at the official rate, one would immediately have an arbitrage on the black market.Translation: The alleged official rate is "for show". No one can get it, except perhaps favored politicians and bankers taking advantage of their position of authority.Reader John, whose father...

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Right-to-Work Sweeps Midwest, Heads for Passage in Wisconsin

Right-to-Work legislation is sweeping the Midwest. It's one of many reforms needed to makes states more competitive, reduce cost pressures on infrastructure projects, and hold down the necessity of tax hikes.Today the Wisconsin Senate Passed 'Right to Work' Legislation.The proposal would let workers opt out of paying mandatory dues. Many would do just that, preferring to keep money for themselves rather than for the priorities of union officials, including corruption, graft, and various political goals that workers may not at all agree with. The Wisconsin House of representatives is expected to approve the legislation making passage all but certain.His staff issued this statement "Governor Walker continues to focus on budget priorities to grow our economy and to streamline state government....

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Mariupol Exchange Rates vs. Laughable "Official" Rate: Foreign Exchange Intervention; IMF Calling the Shots?

Colonel Cassad reports It Takes 44 Hryvnia to Buy a Dollar in Mariupol.Let's do some quick math.On Monday (perhaps reflective of Sunday) Ellen, who lives in Kiev wrote "Today $1 is worth 36 hryvnias on the black market. A Week ago it was 20 hryvnais. No one knows where the bottom is. People buy anything just to get rid of hryvnias."To be safe, let's call it 10 days ago. In those 10 days, the hryvnia plunged from 20 to the dollar to 44 to the dollar. That is a decline of 54.54% in about 10 days. Here is the key "People buy anything just to get rid of hryvnias".Laughable "Official" Rate Here is an amusing chart from Investing.Com for February 25.I...

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In Search of the Magic Wand: Career Change at Age 45 Possible?

Reader Mark has a career question. Mark writes ...Hi Mish: I am 45 years old. I have worked in the grocery business for 20 years. I am starting to have back problems. I would like to move on. Do you have any suggestions as to a suitable career for someone my age. I do read your blog, and I can relate to the money business. Thanks, MarkFormal Education is No Magic WandHi MarkUnfortunately, and in spite of what the education industry would like you to believe, I present a  sobering reality: A career change at age 45 or even 55 is possible, but extremely difficult.Traditional education is highly unlikely to give you the skills you need. Occasionally someone hits the jackpot, but most likely you would waste money, and lots of it trying. Don't believe hype from places like the University of...

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Ukraine Hyperinflation; Currency Plunges 44% in One Week! Actual Black Market Rates; Poroshenko Gives "Ultimatum" to Central Bank to Fix Exchange Rate

I hear various reports of what the hryvnia actually trades for on the black market in Ukraine. I believe the reports, but they come in piecemeal.Today, I have an actual black market link to share thanks to reader Oleg from Crimea.In response to Ukrainian Currency Comparison: Budget Rate vs. Official Rate vs. Interbank Rate vs. Street Rate reader Oleg Writes ... Hello Mish!There's more to the black exchange rate than meets the eye in Ukraine.First of all if you use the "legal" currency exchange places you can only exchange up to 3000 hryvnias per day. Then there is an extra tax on the exchange.None of that applies at the black market of course....

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Emails From Kiev: Free Speech Vanishes, Total Media Thought Control; US Radar System Falls Into Rebel Hands?

Free Speech Vanishes - Total Media Thought ControlI have a couple emails from Ukraine to share, one from two days ago, one from yesterday. Both are from "Ellen" who lives in Kiev (name changed).Two Days Ago From Ellen As you know, the Debaltsevo pocket situation is resolved. It's not as bad as it could have been in terms of casualties. However, this was a crashing defeat of Poroshenko's generals. I don't know how many more losses our society can take, but people are very angry. Currency keep plunging every day. Today it takes 30 hryvnias to buy one US dollar. It seems we have default without official announcement of it.There is a new problem:...

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War of Terror: "Disappeared in Chicago"; Illegal Detention by Chicago Police Without Charges; Beatings and Death

Meet the "Nato Three"Brian Jacob Church, Jared Chase and Brent Vincent Betterly, known as the ‘Nato Three’. Photograph: AP/Cook County sheriff's office.All were arrested, put in an "off-the-books" interrogation compound in Chicago and denied access to lawyers. This goes on every day. People are beaten and threatened.It's all part of the alleged war on terror. I prefer to call it "War of Terror".War of Terror Please consider the Guardian report "The Disappeared": Chicago Police Detain Americans at Abuse-Laden 'Black Site' The Chicago police department operates an off-the-books interrogation compound, rendering Americans unable to be found by...

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