If It Ain't Broken, Don't Fix It: Religious Freedom Act Take II

Religious Freedom Act Take III received a number of emails in response to Indiana Legalizes Discrimination on Grounds of "Religious Freedom". The bill, signed by Indiana Governor Mike Pence openly encourages discrimination based on sexual preference although Pence incredulously denies that claim. Pence now recognizes the need to "clarify" the legislation.One of the better email responses came from reader Mark who wrote ... The Constitution plainly states "Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof."The Constitutional guarantee of religious freedom is sacrosanct. The only restrictions placed on religious freedom are those religious practices that harm others.And I would say “Yes” if you wanted to post a “No Catholics” or “No...

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Downside Data Surprises in Canada; Bad Weather Up North? How About Recession?

The string of bad data reports not only applies to the US, economists up North appear to be no better at predicting the weather than US economists.Variant Perception reports Downside Data Surprises Continue in Canada. For the past 6 months, we have been alerting clients to the persistent decline in our Canada leading indicator. This is now showing up in numerous Canadian coincident data releases, with retail sales being the latest to miss expectations last Friday.  The economic surprise index is now declining sharply and there is little sign of immediate improvement ahead.PMIs continue to fall whilst building permits and housing starts (some...

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Economists Fail to Predict Weather Once Again: Chicago PMI Disappoints

Chicago PMI DisappointsEconomists expected a rebound in the Chicago PMI index this month following its collapse last month. Alas, once again the weather was much worse in Chicago than economists thought.The Bloomberg Consensus was for a rebound from last month's dismal print of 45.8 back into positive territory of 50.2"Companies sampled in the Chicago PMI report continue to report a lull in activity, at a sub-50 March index of 46.3 following 45.8 in February. On a quarterly basis, the index averaged only 50.5 in the first quarter, down steeply from 61.3 in the fourth quarter for the weakest reading since the third quarter of 2009. Respondents...

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Historical Perspective on CPI Deflations: How Damaging are They?

Yet another central bank has announced a warning about the perils of deflation. Please consider China Central Bank Calls for Vigilance on Deflation. China's central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan warned on Sunday that the country needs to be vigilant for signs of deflation and said policymakers were closely watching slowing global economic growth and declining commodity prices.Zhou's comments are likely to add to concerns that China is in danger of slipping into deflation and underline increasing nervousness among policymakers as the economy continues to lose momentum despite a raft of stimulus measures."Inflation in China is also declining. We need to have vigilance if this can go further to reach some sort of deflation or not," Zhou said at a high-level forum in Boao, on the southern Chinese...

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Indiana Legalizes Discrimination on Grounds of "Religious Freedom"

Can you refuse service to gays and lesbians? You can in Indiana thanks to the "Religious Freedom" Bill. Indiana Governor Mike Pence has signed a bill that would allow businesses to refuse service to gay and lesbian patrons on the grounds of “religious freedom”, even as some of the state’s largest business interests oppose the measure.Mr Pence, a potential 2016 presidential contender, said he signed the bill because “many people of faith feel their religious liberty is under attack by government action”.Proving that he cannot think, Pence quipped "If I thought it legalised discrimination in any way in Indiana, I would have vetoed it."And what...

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Ben Bernanke, Confused as Ever, Starts His Own Blog to Prove It

Ben Bernanke just started his own blog at the Brookings Institute. His first post, from today, Inaugurating a New Blog is the announcement. Let's dive into Bernanke's second post of the day: Why are Interest Rates So Low? Bernanke: Low interest rates are not a short-term aberration, but part of a long-term trend. As the figure below shows, ten-year government bond yields in the United States were relatively low in the 1960s, rose to a peak above 15 percent in 1981, and have been declining ever since. That pattern is partly explained by the rise and fall of inflation, also shown in the figure. Mish: Inflation is only low if one ignores asset bubbles....

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Wishful Thinking: "Strong Growth" to Propel Housing

CoreLogic chief economist Dr. Frank Nothaft says Strong Economic Growth To Propel US Housing Market in 2015. The U.S. economy is poised to grow by close to 3 percent in 2015, generating a 3- to 3.5-million-person gain in employment. This job growth, coupled with very low mortgage interest rates and some easing in credit access, is expected to propel both owner-occupant and rental housing activity this year. This heightened level of housing demand should translate to the best home sales market in eight years, a projected rise of about 5-6 percent in the national CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI) and mortgage originations that will likely rise...

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UBS on the Driver for Gold: What is Gold About to Tell Us?

An interesting article came my way from UBS analyst Julien Garran on the driver for gold. I do not have a link to share so excerpts will have to do. Garran's article is one of the better ones I have seen. Unlike others, Garran does not cite jewelry, mining capacity, central bank purchases or sales or other similar (and wrong) notions that unfortunately are widespread among most analysts. Commodities & Mining Q&A (by Julien Garran)Q1. What drives gold? A1. In the past, we’ve argued that international US$ liquidity is fundamental to calling first gold and then the industrial miners. In this note, we go a step deeper, arguing that gold...

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Sarkozy, Le Pen Triumph Over Socialists in Second Round of Local Elections

The Socialists were routed in the second round of French elections this weekend. The centre-right UMP party led by Nicholas Sarkozy was the clear winner but Marine Le Pen's National Front had it best performance ever at the local level although it did not win any départements.The Financial Times reports Nicolas Sarkozy the winner as French local polls deal blow to Socialists.The UMP, led by the former president Nicolas Sarkozy and in an election coalition with the centrist UDI party, won between 66 and 70 départements compared with 41 previously, according to projections from polling companies.By contrast, the Socialist party looked to have held on to between only 27 and 31 — barely half the 61 départements it controlled before.The far-right National Front (FN), meanwhile, appeared to have...

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Time to Eliminate Pilots in Aircrafts: Post Pilot Era Coming Up

Instead of new rules making sure two people are in the cockpit at all times, how about a rule that says no one at all is allowed in the cockpit? This is precisely how I felt after 911 and even more so after the disappearance of Malaysia Flight 370 on March 8. The tragedy of Germanwings Flight 9525 in which a mentally ill co-pilot deliberately flew the plane into a mountain killing all 150 on board is icing on the cake.And it's not just two deliberate crashes either. Please consider The Mystery of Flight 9525: a Locked Door, a Silent Pilot and a Secret History of Illness. Just under 40 minutes into their journey, the plane’s 27-year-old co-pilot, Andreas Lubitz, turned the Airbus A320 into a missile, guiding it into the southern Alps after locking its captain, Patrick Sonderheimer, out of...

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Can the Eurozone Survive? Not in Its Current Form Says PIMCO; Mish Response

Echoing statements I have made many times, PIMCO says the single currency area must become a "United States of Europe" in order to secure its future.Please consider Eurozone can't survive in current form, says PIMCO. The eurozone is "untenable" in its current form and cannot survive unless countries are prepared to cede sovereignty and become a "United States of Europe", the manager of the world's biggest bond fund has warned.The Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO) said that while the bloc was likely to stay together in the medium term, with Greece remaining in the eurozone, the single currency could not survive if countries did not move closer together.Persistently weak growth in the eurozone had led to voter unrest and the rise of populist parties such as Podemos in Spain, Syriza...

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Wally Becomes Chief Economist for Dilbert, Predicts "Bubble in Monetary Policy"

On the lighter side, in the March 28, 2015 Dilbert, Wally becomes the new chief economist.Wally: "The exchange rate on derivatives will trigger a bubble in monetary policy and deflate the Yen."I like the phrase "bubble in monetary policy". It aptly expresses precisely what has been happening globally.Mike "Mish" Shedlockhttp://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot....

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Patriot Act Vote Coming Up: Google joins Apple, Others Requesting Spying Controls

The Patriot act expires in June, and anyone in their right mind would wish the entire concept to go away entirely. NSA Spying has a 100% perfect track record of failure.Sadly, the answer to the question Would NSA Data Surveillance End With Patriot Act? is a resounding "No". The National Security Agency would lose its legal justification for collecting data on Americans' phone and email activity if Congress does not reauthorize the Patriot Act by June 1, but privacy advocates are skeptical about whether that would mean the end of the controversial surveillance program.President Barack Obama has called on Congress to pass a bill that would end the bulk surveillance program while keeping certain spying powers intact for national security reasons. The clock is ticking, however, as the NSA loses...

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Earnings "Beat the Street" Manipulation Underway as Profit Warnings Mount

Of S&P 500 companies providing first-quarter outlooks, MarketWatch reports 84% have been negative as Profit Warnings Pile Up.Ahead of the start of earnings reporting season, which unofficially kicks off when Alcoa Inc., reports results on April 8, about 84% of the companies that have provided first-quarter outlooks gave negative outlooks. That’s above the 81% that warned Q1 2014, and the five-year average of 68%.I believe that yellow highlight I added should say Q3. More importantly, it would have been nice for MarketWatch to actually link to FactSet because it contains some interesting charts and analysis.Earnings InsightLet's dive into...

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